East African Neighbors Outpace Kenya in Projected GDP Growth as Ethiopia Holds Strong at 7.1%
Recent economic forecasts from major institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the African Development Bank (AfDB) highlight a shifting dynamic in East Africa: several neighboring countries are projected to grow faster than Kenya in the coming years, while Ethiopia continues to post robust figures around 7.1%.
According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) projections for 2026 (and aligned with 2025 trends), here's how key East African economies stack up:
South Sudan: Explosive rebound expected at around 22.4% (or up to 27% in some estimates), driven by the resumption of full oil production and exports following peace efforts and pipeline repairs after disruptions from the Sudan conflict.
Uganda: Strong performance at 7.6%, fueled by expanded public investment in oil production, infrastructure, and regional trade.
Rwanda: Impressive 7.5% growth, supported by consistent reforms, services sector expansion, and tourism recovery.
Tanzania: Solid 6.3%, propelled by ongoing infrastructure projects, energy developments, and sustained growth in agriculture and services.
DR Congo (Democratic Republic of the Congo): Steady 5.3%, backed by the mining sector (especially copper and cobalt), construction, and export gains despite security challenges in the east.
Ethiopia: Remains a powerhouse with 7.1% projected for 2026 (following 7.2% in 2025), driven by investments in mining, agriculture, energy, and ongoing structural reforms — though slightly moderated from recent highs.
Kenya: Lags relatively at 4.9%, amid challenges including fiscal pressures, debt management, and slower recovery in key sectors despite resilience in agriculture and services.
For Kenya, the relatively lower forecast underscores ongoing debates about structural reforms, debt sustainability, and the need to boost private investment and export diversification to regain momentum.
While absolute GDP size still favors larger economies like Ethiopia (projected to overtake Kenya as East Africa's biggest in some metrics by 2026) and Kenya remains a regional hub, the growth differential signals intense competition ahead in the East African Community and beyond.
Analysts emphasize that these are projections — subject to global commodity prices, geopolitical stability (especially in Sudan and eastern DR Congo), climate risks, and domestic policy execution. East Africa's overall outlook remains one of the brightest on the continent.
