Ruto Leads 2027 Race in Fresh TIFA Poll
President William Ruto has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the race for Kenya’s next presidency according to a new survey by TIFA Research.
Conducted between May 2 and May 11, 2026, the poll shows Ruto commanding 24 percent support among respondents, placing him ahead of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka at 19 percent and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i at 14 percent. Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna follows in fourth position with 10 percent, just ahead of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua at 9 percent, while the number of undecided voters has dropped to 15 percent.
The survey highlights a fluid political landscape where no single candidate enjoys overwhelming national backing. Ruto’s support has grown steadily over the past year, with particularly strong showings in Northern Kenya at 48 percent and Nyanza at 41 percent. Kalonzo Musyoka dominates the Lower Eastern region with 78 percent backing, while Matiang’i performs best in Nyanza and Gachagua maintains his base in Mt Kenya. Analysts note that the absence of a unified opposition front could keep the contest dynamic as parties position themselves for the 2027 General Election.
Within the Orange Democratic Movement, the poll reveals a strong preference for the Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi faction over the Oburu Oginga-associated Linda Ground camp. An overwhelming 73 percent of ODM supporters back Sifuna’s group, compared to just 24 percent for the rival faction linked to the broad-based government arrangement. This divide suggests many party loyalists favour a more independent, accountability-focused opposition approach rather than closer ties with the ruling side.
As political temperatures rise, the findings underscore shifting public sentiments and regional strongholds that will shape strategies in the coming months. While Ruto holds an early advantage, the race remains open with growing competition from multiple quarters. Observers will be watching closely to see how these popularity trends evolve as alliances form and key issues take centre stage ahead of the polls.
